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BOS @ BAL Betting Analysis

Game Overview Teams: Boston Red Sox (BOS) @ Baltimore Orioles (BAL) Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (neutral park factors) Weather: 15 mph winds blowing out to dead center/right-center (boosts HR potential) Starting Pitchers: BOS: Tanner Houck (6.35 ERA, struggling with command, high hard-hit%) BAL: Charlie Morton (10.80 ERA, getting crushed, 85.7% hard-hit rate)

Key Takeaways: High-scoring game expected – both pitchers struggling, wind aiding offense. BAL lineup has been hot (Westburg, O’Hearn, Mullins, O’Neill all crushing the ball). BOS lineup has speed (Duran, Story) and power (Devers, Casas) but inconsistent production.

Pitching Matchup Analysis Tanner Houck (BOS) Big red flags: 6.35 ERA, 63.2% hard-hit rate, 15.8% barrel rate – getting crushed. 8.3% K%, 12.5% BB% – poor command, not missing bats. Career struggles vs. BAL: .274 BA, .695 OPS allowed (Mullins, O’Hearn, Urias have good numbers). Vulnerable to: Hard contact (HR risk) – BAL has power (O’Neill, Westburg, Rutschman). Running game – Adley Rutschman has a strong arm, but BAL may test Houck’s slow delivery.

Charlie Morton (BAL) Disastrous start: 10.80 ERA, 85.7% hard-hit rate, 100.5 mph avg exit velo – getting shelled. Only 16.7% K%, 5.6% BB% – not fooling anyone. BOS has some success vs. him: Duran (1.357 OPS), Story (.889 OPS), Devers (.632 OPS). Vulnerable to: Power hitters (Duran, Devers, Casas). Speed (Duran, Story could steal).

Conclusion: Both pitchers are in terrible form. Expect runs early and often.

Key Offensive Matchups [8:12 AM] BAL Hitters vs. Houck: Ryan O’Hearn: .375 BA, 1.125 OPS (small sample, but crushing it). Cedric Mullins: .278 BA, .500 SLG, HR off Houck. Ramon Urias: .500 BA, 1.000 OPS (8 ABs). Adley Rutschman: Struggles (.125 BA) but due for positive regression.

BOS Hitters vs. Morton: Jarren Duran: .429 BA, 1.357 OPS, HR off Morton. Rafael Devers: .270 BA, .632 OPS (historically decent). Trevor Story: .333 BA, .889 OPS (small sample).

Best Matchups: BAL: O’Hearn, Mullins, Westburg (hot). BOS: Duran, Devers, Story (speed + power).

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